If he avoids a head to head with Fire Ship (who’s best form is in Listed Grade and probably does not have the Class to mix it in a pace duel), Kodi Bear can run the race to suit or play catch me if you can with the rest of the field.Īs various studies have shown time and time again, how a horse performed in its previous race has a direct correlation to how a horse will perform in its next race.Īs shown in the table above which summarises the record of horses in the Celebration Mile based on the finishing positon of their previous race, those that won or were placed last time out should be the focus of attention. Historically, horses that like to run “Held Up” perform 23% below normal and as identified by our Race Guide pace map below, there is a good chance that the race will suit the running style of Kodi Bear In short based on past stats, horses that are 1 st and 2 nd in the market win the majority of races but the favourite is overbet by the crowd. Nevertheless where the favourite (SP Rank 1) wins 2.15 times more than expected (IV), the market is all over the jolly like a rash and based on the prices of each favourite, their performance is 23% below expectation (A/E 0.77 in purple). Both are 1 st and 2 nd in the market.Īs shown in the Image above, the top three in the betting combined have won 14 of the last 18 renewals. In this year’s race Kodi Bear is aged three and Breton Rock is aged five. However statistically, of the 21 horses aged five who raced in the Celebration Mile, their win performance is 79% above normal expectation. If we focus on outcomes, the scales are tilted toward younger horses with winners down the years aged three (9), four (1), five (5), six (2) and eight (1).
With market leader Kodi Bear a short price favourite for the race, in this week’s blog we use the powers of Proform Professional to research key race trends and determine if he’s got what it takes based on the past renewals of the Celebration Mile. It is run at Goodwood over a distance of 1 mileand scheduled to take place each year in late August. The Celebration Mile is a Group 2 flat horse race in Great Britain open to horses aged three years or older.